China's Emissions Fell Last Quarter as Oil Use Dropped, Analyst Estimates
China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by about 1% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, according to a quarterly analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, published Sept. 3 by Carbon Brief. The figures are his estimates, compiled from official Chinese statistics, and are not official Chinese government emissions figures.
The fall came from oil. Myllyvirta estimates that China's oil use dropped 9% in the quarter and 16% for transport fuels, after supply from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. He puts oil imports down 32% for the quarter and crude processing volumes down 11%, and reports that Sinopec, China's largest refiner, recorded a 9% fall in sales. He writes that this is the first quarter in which falling oil use, rather than falling coal use, has driven a decline in China's emissions.
Emissions from electricity generation rose over the same period. The analysis puts power-sector emissions up 3.0% across the first half of 2026, after a 3.2% fall in the first half of 2025, with coal use in the power sector up 2.4% in the second quarter and gas-fired generation down 1.2%. Myllyvirta attributes the increase to a larger share of available wind and solar output going unused because the grid and power market did not absorb it.
Other sectors he tracks moved unevenly. Cement production fell about 9% in the quarter on lower construction volumes, crude steel output fell 1% and pig iron 3%, while growth in coal use for chemicals slowed to 8% year on year, from 15% in 2025.
Myllyvirta says the analysis draws on data releases from China's National Bureau of Statistics, National Energy Administration, China Electricity Council and China Customs, along with the commercial provider WIND Information and Sinopec, and that emissions are calculated using National Bureau of Statistics calorific values and emissions factors from China's 2021 national greenhouse gas inventory.
